IEA Raises 2024 Oil Demand Projection, Trims Next Year’s

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday raised its projection for 2024 oil demand growth but trimmed its forecast for next year, citing China’s slowing economy.

“China’s marked slowdown has been the main drag on demand, with its growth this year expected to average just a tenth of the 1.4 mb/d increase in 2023,” the Paris-based organization said.

The IEA said world oil demand is forecast to grow by around 920,000 barrels per day (B/D) this year, up from “just shy of” 900,000 B/D in its October projection. The Paris-based agency is forecasting growth of “just shy of” 1 million B/D next year, versus “around” 1 million B/D previously.

Oil Demand Has Eased Since Post-Pandemic Surge

The IEA forecasts are well below the post-pandemic growth levels in 2022 to 2023, when they were around 2 million B/D. The slowing demand in recent years, the IEA said, reflects the easing of demand after a pandemic surge, “below-par underlying global economic conditions,” and replacement of fossil fuel use by consumers with clean energy alternatives.

The IEA’s forecasts follow the latest outlook projection cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which cited updated data for the first three quarters of the year.

The price of Brent crude was trading slightly higher at $72.54 a barrel Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate crude was edging higher at $68.69 a barrel.